Forex
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21hours ago
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Written by Greenup24
Bitcoin ended the week around $64,000 $65,000 and remained above its 200 week Simple Moving Average despite cautious market sentiment. Positive flows into US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs and continued whale accumulation point to improving demand. However, geopolitical uncertainty and the price’s position below major daily moving averages continue to limit bullish momentum.
According to SoSoValue, US listed spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $754.69 million in net inflows through Thursday. The positive weekly flow suggests that some institutional investors view current prices as an opportunity to enter the market or increase their exposure.
CryptoQuant data also indicate continued accumulation by large holders. Whale balances, excluding exchange and mining pool addresses, increased from approximately 2.87 million BTC in December 2025 to nearly 3.06 million BTC. A significant part of this accumulation occurred when Bitcoin fell below $60,000 in June.
Whale balances nevertheless remain below the 2025 bull cycle peak of roughly 3.23 million BTC. This leaves room for further accumulation, although consistent institutional demand will be needed to support a more durable recovery.
The latest US Nonfarm Payrolls report showed that the economy lost 23,000 jobs in July, sharply missing expectations for an increase of 80,000. The Unemployment Rate still declined from 4.2% to 4.1%, while annual wage growth eased from 3.4% to 3.2%.
The weak headline employment figure reduced expectations for another Federal Reserve rate increase and initially supported risk sensitive assets, including cryptocurrencies. Even so, markets remain divided between an unchanged decision and a 25 basis point hike in September.
The next US inflation report and comments from Fed officials may therefore cause fresh volatility in Bitcoin. Softer inflation could support demand for risk assets, while an upside surprise may strengthen the Dollar, lift yields and place renewed pressure on BTC.
Uncertainty surrounding US Iran negotiations and access to the Strait of Hormuz remains an important market risk. Any escalation or disruption to major energy routes could push Oil prices and inflation expectations higher. Such an environment would likely encourage a more defensive approach across equity and cryptocurrency markets, limiting Bitcoin’s ability to stage a rapid recovery.
On the regulatory front, the US Senate has delayed a floor vote on the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act until September. The postponement extends uncertainty over the development of a clearer regulatory framework for digital assets and may remain a secondary source of caution in the short term.
On the weekly chart, the 200 week SMA at $63,776 represents the most important line of defense for buyers. As long as Bitcoin remains above this level, the possibility of a broader recovery stays intact.
The next major resistance is located at $65,520, corresponding to the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the move from the August 2024 low to the October 2025 record high. A weekly close above this level could strengthen the recovery scenario and open the way toward the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $78,490.
The weekly RSI stands near 39 and remains below the neutral 50 level, although its upward direction points to easing bearish pressure. The weekly MACD has also maintained the bullish crossover formed in mid July, with growing green histogram bars supporting a gradual improvement in momentum.
The daily chart presents a more cautious picture. Bitcoin remains below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average at $64,632, the 100 day EMA at $67,018 and the 200 day EMA at $73,148. A decisive move through these resistance levels would be required to confirm a stronger bullish reversal.
Immediate support is located around $64,004. A daily close below this level, followed by a loss of the 200 week SMA, could expose the market to a deeper correction toward $60,000. In contrast, defending the current support area and breaking above $65,520 would provide the first meaningful confirmation that buyers are regaining control.
ETF inflows and continued whale accumulation provide a constructive backdrop for Bitcoin, but the daily technical structure has not yet turned decisively bullish. Macroeconomic uncertainty and geopolitical risks also remain relevant.
The $63,776 $64,004 area is the key boundary between consolidation and a deeper correction. On the upside, a sustained break above $65,520 could improve sentiment and create room for a broader price recovery.
Risk Warning: This material is provided for informational and market analysis purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any asset. Trading Gold and cryptocurrencies involves a high risk of capital loss. Always assess your financial circumstances and risk tolerance before making a trading decision.
